Humanoid robots: Why they can cost "little
When it comes to humanoid robots, one quick objection is that they are so complex that they will be unaffordable or at least cannot be profitable. Whether the Tesla Optimus will actually be offered for $20,000 remains to be seen. But even if it were to cost, say, $30,000, I think it would be attractively priced. Ideally, such a humanoid robot could take over a human workplace in shift work, for example, without any modifications.
But is a price beyond the values that e.g. Boston Dynamics calls up or that the "gut" suggests realistic? This LinkedIn author has his doubts and he is certainly not alone:
The automotive industry shows how it works
The Hello Robot robot pictured above is likely to be produced in small numbers. This is true for many robots. Ideally, their production may be automated to a considerable extent, but the installed parts are still produced in small quantities. A similar situation exists in the automotive industry. In the course of a research project, I got to know the BMW tool shop. The tools for the BMW plants are manufactured there in a huge hall. When a cooling hood is punched, it is done in a mold made by the tool shop. Everything is done with the utmost precision so that the radiator hood is also smooth and this even after 500,000 pressing processes. The production of a tool is correspondingly expensive. Aware of this, I asked the manager if the effort for small-volume manufacturers like Ferrari & Co. was not much too great. He answered in the affirmative and said that there the parts are individually lasered or otherwise manufactured and a lot of manual work would be involved. The quantities are just missing.
This gave me the idea to compare Ferrari with Porsche. I don't know either brand well, but I can see the difference between individual and series production. Whether a Ferrari is actually higher quality than an expensive Porsche, I can not judge. The Ferrari may have the more powerful engine, but the Porsche probably has more assistance systems. These increase the complexity of production and cost quite a bit. So let's venture a comparison on unit costs. The figures were only quickly googled and do not represent a scientific work:
The cost of a Ferrari is therefore around a factor of 3 higher than that of a Porsche. Those who love Ferraris will say that a Porsche is much worse. Okay, to take this into account, you can increase the Porsche costs by a horrendous €60,000, for example. Then Ferrari still has a disadvantage of the factor 2.
In the medium term, humanoids can be produced in completely different quantities
When looking at Porsche's figures, it is important to bear in mind that the company has many different models and powertrains. Porsche does benefit from the VW Group's platform strategy, but the 146,000 units produced are spread over around 10 models with many variants. A properly mass-produced humanoid robot can quickly reach six-figure annual production. And unlike a Porsche, it is made of fewer materials and not even the highest-quality leather. That's why I think a price of well under €50,000 is absolutely realistic.
Without autonomous driving, humanoids will become more expensive
In recent weeks, it has become increasingly clear that true autonomous driving will not be feasible for a very long time. I found this commentary in the Handelsblatt to be downright sobering. It is full of new knowledge for me. Until then, my vision, inspired by the video, was: parcel car drives autonomously, humanoid robot gets out and brings the parcels. If this were possible, millions of humanoids could be deployed worldwide very quickly.
Are we networking? LinkedIn
-> To the Cobot group on LinkedIn (Link)
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The author of this blog is significantly involved in the AI/robotics project Opdra. He answers companies the question if and how a robot could be used in your company (initial analysis including recommendation). This in the greater areas of Trier and Lüneburg as well as Eastern Germany without Leipzig/ Berlin for 700 € net, in the rest of Germany for an all-inclusive price of 1,750 € net (incl. travel). The low price is possible thanks to promotion. Permanently looking for interesting solutions, he has already seen hundreds of applications. For this reason, his customers also include large companies that have know-how but do not know the entire market. For companies with 250 employees or more or those based in Austria or Switzerland, the flat rate does not apply. You can find more about him here.
Those who have endured to this point deserve a reward. The most beautiful car comparison I know:
