Universal Robots & MIR: $1 billion revenue target in 2026.
One thing up front, the headline was not derived from communications from Teradyne, the parent company of Universal Robots and Mobile Industrial Robots. Instead, it comes from an analysis firm. After all, publicly traded companies like Teradyne are in constant communication with analysts. The whole article(link) reads balanced. Therefore, there is no reason for me to doubt the core statement. The article contains what I think is the first statement on the sales distribution of the robotics division: "(...) 65% of 2022 sales were outside of the United States, including 40% in Europe, 11% in China, and the other 14% spread across the rest of the globe."
US$1 billion in 2026 means 25% growth p.a.
Greg Smith, Teradyne's fairly new CEO, was previously head of the Group's robotics division ("Industrial Automation"). He expects the robotics division's sales to exceed US$1 billion by 2026. This would correspond to growth of 25% per year. Assuming, for reasons of simplification, that the two core companies develop at the same rate, Universal Robots would have sales of $760 million and Mobile-Industrial Robots sales of just under $200 million.
While the first half of 2023 is considered more challenging, strong growth is expected from mid-year onwards.
Teradyne confirms the euphoric forecasts of the overall market
The cobot market is known to be forecast to grow by between 30 and 40% per year. This value is higher than the increase mentioned here. This seems plausible to me since Universal Robots will most likely lose market share. This has nothing to do with UR's product quality or offerings, but is more or less just the way it is. China is becoming more protectionist (multi-year robotics plan), there are competitors that didn't exist before, and the market is going to go wide. Companies that are only willing to spend 25,000 euros for a complete solution have been served by igus, for example, since quite recently. The market is thus also expanding into areas where Universal Robots or Mobile Industrial Robots are not represented at all, e.g. that of price-sensitive customers.
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